Stormy times ahead of May 9, 2022 Presidential Elections in RP

My good friend, Dick Pascual of the Philippine Star asked me a question about the 2022 elections. Here are my thoughts:

1. This election will be a hard fought one. First, it will surely be a fight among political stooges of Filipino plutocrats. These plutocrats want to protect their businesses and investments in the country. Who are these wealthy plutocrats? 
   1. The Digong camp including Davao mayor Sara Duterte— we all know that this family is very close to Dennis Uy, the man behind Dito Telephony and Phoenix oil (the oil firm that was once accused of technical smuggling of oil), the Gokongweis of Cebu Pacific, the Gos, Lucio Co, Lim, etal.
   2. The Bongbong Marcos camp— former Marcos cronies who are still around namely Roberto Ongpin, the Chuas, the Yaps, Gotianuns, Floreidos,
   3. The Manila mayor Isko Moreno camp— who is the man behind Isko? Of course, its Enrique Razon who staunchly protects his family’s jewels, the Manila ICTC.
   4. The camp of Senator Manny Pacquiao Jr.— Obviously the Singsons, Wong the best friend of Cong Lito Atienza Jr., the Tiengs of Solar Entertainment fame now in construction and some quarters say, even the Lopez family. A Cojuangco is also said to be supporting Pacquiao.
   5. The camp of Senator Panfilo “Ping” Lacson Jr.— who else but the Gokongweis, former generals, high ranking police generals, the Class of 71, several Binondo-based old Chinese wealthy people.
   6. The camp of Vice President Leni Robredo— Obviously, you have the high nosed American and Spanish powers including of course, the Aranetas, the Roxases, the sugar barons including several families in Bicolandia.
   7. The camp of Senate president Vicente “Sotto” III— the aristocrats of Cebu, several businessmen connected with the manufacturing industry.
   8. The camp of Senator Grace Poe— Grace Poe has been supported by San Miguel head Ramon S. Ang.

2. What are they fighting for? They are fighting for the spoils of an emerging tiger economy the Philippines. Many projects that were studied and approved during the time of President Benigno S. Aquino III and even Duterte’s are left unfinished. These projects are in the trillions. Plus the fact that China is rising very fast–these plutocrats want nothing more than their slice of the Sino pie. There are also rumors that Hong Kong Money is slowly pouring in, with most capitalists there targeting the Philippines as a possible venue to transfer their global and regional operations.

3. Possible configurations:

1. Lacson-Sotto/Sotto-Lacson— this tandem is now going around town trying to get the pulse of the masses. Sotto is supposed to run for mayor of Quezon City but reportedly convinced not to and instead gun for a national post. Lacson, on the other hand, has been convinced by several businessmen to try and determine his chances. Lacson had his time and based on conventional political wisdom, a candidate for the presidency who already lost would surely find himself either committing the same mistakes or already figured out what to do this time around. The combination is almost perfect–Sotto from the Visayas and Lacson for Luzon. is this a fantastic combination? Well, these two are veterans in the political game. The question that everyone wants some answers is– what new things are they going to offer the Filipino masses? Sotto might be the strongest vice presidential candidate and he might clinch it.
2. Duterte-Bong Go. I believe this is the tandem that Malacanang insiders want. With the appointment of former Congressman Jing Paras as the Palace political adviser, surely the Palace intends to carefully study this option. I believe the president when he says that he is not interested in the vice presidency. A reverse, meaning Go as presidential bet and President Duterte as VP will surely lose.
3. Duterte-Marcos/Sara Duterte-Bongbong Marcos— This has been discussed for a long time now and no resolution in sight. Sources say, Bongbong is hell-bent on running for the presidency. Time is surely running out for him. One, he is again tossing his hat unto the ring after losing the vice presidential run. If Bongbong decides not to run for president and instead gun for either a vice presidential run or a Senate bid, he might surely win. On the other hand, I dispute several assumptions of a Sara Duterte win. Sara is only strong in the Mindanao and several parts of the Visayas. Sara’s camp has work cut out for them.
4. Robredo-Trillianes— Don’t count this tandem out. Slowly their numbers are rising. The only thing here is they are just strong in Luzon which accounts for 56% of the vote. They are both weak in the Visayas and Mindanao areas, with Magdalo losing their mass bases in those regions.
5. Robredo-Isko Moreno/Moreno-Robredo— THis tandem is now being seriously considered by the opposition. The thing is–will it win?
6. Pacquiao-Sotto— Possible? Yes it is. Enuf said. This is a very interesting tandem between the son of the Visayas yet also popular in Luzon (Sotto) with Mindanao’s own the Pacman.
7. Isko Moreno-Pacquiao— also possible and the chances of winning is strong if Robredo does decide not to run for the presidency and instead run for governor of a Bicolano province.
8. Bongbong Marcos-Pacquiao— also very interesting and the chances of winning is also big.

Now, if Isko Moreno drops out, the only strong candidate the opposition may have would be Robredo. Now, if Pacquiao continues to get hit by Malacanang, chances are the good senator will just gun for re-election or slide to the vice presidential post, which, Pacquiao will go toe-to-toe with Sotto. Sotto might win.

Seems like Sara Duterte is clearly running what with all these political parties going to Hugpong. The political maneuverings now are clearly meant to dismantle or even lessen the chances of the PDP-Laban in this elections. Seems like the President’s men themselves are causing the party to tear itself at the seams.

Fractious political in-fighting would surely happen on both the administration and opposition camps, with other dormant political parties suddenly becoming active again because of the very serious situation.