In Washington, impeachment debates often orbit around constitutional phrases like “high crimes and misdemeanors.” In Manila, the battle lines have sharpened around something more procedural but no less consequential: probable cause. This week’s findings—linking the Commission on Audit (COA) and the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) to allegations against Vice President Sara Duterte—have injected fresh urgency into a process that has already survived constitutional setbacks, Supreme Court intervention, and political brinkmanship. At first glance, “probable cause” sounds like a modest legal hurdle. It is not. It is the moment when an allegation becomes an institutional belief. And in the Philippines’ impeachment architecture, that moment belongs not to judges—but to politicians. The House justice committee’s role is formally legal: to weigh evidence and determine...