The Duterte Four composed of Presidential sister Senator Imee Marcos, ex-PNP chief Senator Bato dela Rosa, former Special Assistant to President Duterte Senator Bong Go and former MMDA chair, Senator Francis Tolentino, are all vying for political survival come 2025. With their political God father now declaring semi-retirement, and his daughter suffering from image perception issues, made even worse by the fragmentation and weakening of their political parties, these four would have to face the most difficult decision for their political careers—further contribute to the political isolation of the Dutertes, particularly Vice president Sara Duterte.

Of the four, Imee Marcos seems to be softening her stance against his brother’s administration, with news of her joining the Nacionalista Party (NP) senatorial slate. NP, by the way, is getting ready to join the Partido Federal-National Unity Party-Lakas-NUCD super coalition.

If this happens, Imee will now be part of the supercoalition allied with his brother’s administration. Question—will she finally reconcile with one of the “brains” behind this super coalition, namely Liza Araneta-Marcos? If she does, will this signal the end of her close political relationship with the Duterte, specifically Vice president Sara Duterte? If not, Imee would be a “shoo-in” candidate of Hugpong, the political party of Sara.

Bato has expressed his undying loyalty to Vice President Sara Duterte, indicating that he could possibly become one of the senatorial nominees of Hugpong, Sara’s regional party. However, Bato is now facing a dilemma. The party to which he belongs, the PDP-Laban, has reverted to its “old self” — a shell of a party abandoned by its biggest political supporters. If Bato continues as a member of the PDP, he will likely lose in the upcoming elections, despite having high approval ratings. On the other hand, if he aligns with Hugpong, his chances of winning are very slim.

This political conundrum also haunts Senator Bong Go. Go is known as a close Duterte associate yet he is a pariah, as far as Sara is concerned. With the Cusi-Duterte wing of the PDP-Laban party gasping for air, Go has nowhere else to go but possibly ally himself with the bigger political party coalitions. The reality is no one from the administration will accept him unless, otherwise, he brings something to the table, and that is, sacrifice his dearly beloved mayor to the dogs. That explains his eerie silence. Go is a brilliant political strategist, and he realizes the complexity of his situation at this very moment.

We are now left with Tolentino. Compared to the previous two, Tolentino has a better chance of getting approval from bigger political figures, given that he is the only “dilawan” who successfully managed to cross over to the open arms of the Dutertes. With the political alliance between the Dutertes and the Marcoses now shattered, Tolentino, along with Go and Dela Rosa, must make decisions and maneuver to ensure their political survival. Several observers believe we might see Tolentino distancing himself from the mayor and from PDP-Laban Duterte-Cusi wing into the “loving arms” of the Partido Federal-led super coalition. This possibility, say some political kibitzers, relies on whether Sara Duterte’s numbers improve for the next succeeding weeks and months.

Many analysts believe that the mid-term elections in 2025 will be a fierce battle between new and incumbent senators, as well as “old but pretending to be new” candidates, most of whom are former government officials from previous administrations. They will be competing against each other, including the Duterte Four. Without the strong support infrastructure provided by the previous Duterte electoral machinery, it is likely that they will find themselves struggling in a significantly altered political landscape and eventually escaping electoral victory.