Leadership Shake-Up in Bangsamoro: Implications for Governance, Security, and 2025 Elections

The abrupt leadership change in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region — from Chief Minister Murad Ibrahim to Abdul Rauf Makakua — has triggered political tensions within the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), especially with national elections just seven months away.

President Bongbong Marcos’ appointment of Makakua, who has military affiliations, is seen as a calculated move to stabilize the region amid rising security concerns and internal disputes over autonomy.

This leadership shift has brought renewed scrutiny on the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA), which faces criticism for governance issues, nepotism, and lack of transparency in the distribution of black grants.

Despite the absence of large-scale terrorist attacks, local political dynamics, unresolved grievances, and armed group involvement have raised fears of election-related violence in the region.

Experts including Amina Rasul-Bernardo and Prof. Rommel Banlaoi explore:

• The historical context of Mindanao’s political structure

• Duterte’s lasting influence on regional politics

• The fragile balance between peace and power in the Bangsamoro region

• The looming impact of dynastic politics in the 2025 elections

With the BTA under pressure to deliver on its promises, and with MILF leadership walking a fine line between reform and resistance, the coming months will be critical in determining the future of governance, autonomy, and peace in Mindanao.