Recent surveys, particularly the latest PAHAYAG second quarter 2024 survey of Publicus Asia of my good friend, Malou Tiquia reflected exactly what analysts had seen several months ago—that the trend seems to be that of both the President’s and the Vice president’s ratings slowly going south. That both are losing significantly even from their respective “baluartes.” This validates my earlier assertions that people are getting tired of the Marcos and Duterte narratives, and the chances of the people rejecting both groups seem closer than ever. The prospect of a victory by an emerging “third force” looks rosier by the minute.

What is evident is that it seems that Bongbong is dragging Sara down with him. With inflationary woes being experienced every single day by the people, particularly by the middle class, expect the trust and performance ratings of our officials to really hit rock bottom. And we are still not yet entering the “worse” economic scenario. Everyone is waiting with bated breath, what the U.S. Federal Reserves says of an impending rate cut this year see link: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-interest-rates-june-2024-meeting-rate-cuts/#:~:text=MoneyWatch-,Federal%20Reserve%20now%20expects%20to%20cut%20interest%20rates,in%202024%20amid%20sticky%20inflation&text=The%20Federal%20Reserve%20on%20Wednesday,inflation%20is%20cooling%20in%20earnest. Inter-bank short term loan interests are at its highest at 5.5%.

What would that rate cut do to us? Lemme give the view of the U.P. School of Economics about this:

“Capital flight could occur if the interest rate hike in the US attracts investments to relocate from the Philippines. If capital outflows exceed inflows, peso depreciation would occur. If the country remains attractive, however, forces that induce peso depreciation could be blunted.” See link: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/perse/?p=5113#:~:text=Capital%20flight%20could%20occur%20if,peso%20depreciation%20could%20be%20blunted.

The change in the FED rate could have a significant impact on us. It could lead to an increase in capital outflows, affecting the stability of our currency. This could result in the peso’s depreciation, leading to intervention by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and a reduction in our dollar reserves. The peso’s depreciation would have far-reaching effects, causing import prices to rise and increasing the prices of other goods and services. Higher prices would contribute to higher inflation, and we could also expect higher toll charges, as the firms managing these highways have borrowed money with interest rates linked to global banks. Higher toll rates mean increased transportation expenses, which companies will surely pass on to consumers. In the end, consumers will surely suffer from this.

Fortunately, we have the elections to save us. In the past, election spending has “saved” the economy from further going south. With increased expenditure, expect more revenues to buoy our economy until maybe June or July of next year.

The deteriorating economy is attributed to the steady decline in Marcos’ trust and performance ratings. Although our economists may not explicitly state it, capital outflows are increasing daily due to the escalating anti-Chinese rhetoric propagated by government hawks. Consequently, people are bearing the brunt of a sluggish economy exacerbated by institutional corruption and a lingering perception of a business environment favoring those close to the Power couple in Malacanan.

Going back to Sara— if Sara wishes to salvage her remaining political capital, she should probably do what her supporters want her to do—detach from the administration and become the symbol of resistance against this administration. Her recent remarks did not do her well—positioning herself as neither here nor there, a pitiful sight of a political animal in her death throes.

As what Mang Goryo told me last night—Sara must have the gulugod and stand with the people. If she truly is what she really claims to be, Sara should fully detach herself from the administration as Bongbong Marcos’ vice and don the oppositionist cape like how a Joan of Arc would do or possibly, a Cory?

If Sara makes this sacrifice, her move would position her as the “third force,” packing political winds like a whirlwind. First, she should resign as vice president. Second, she needs to distance herself from the vicious political figures circling her father like prehistoric vultures and reclaim the Duterte brand, understood by many as a brand whose members understand the real sentiments of impoverished people.

Of course, this sacrifice is fraught with numerous risks. Sara will be unable to access the billions of pesos allocated to the Office of the Vice President. She will lose her official position and the ability to influence the bureaucracy, which could impact her relationships with major contractors and political financiers seeking to profit from their connections with government officials. Additionally, she will no longer have access to the intelligence funds that her father regarded as hers, considering they were ‘given to her.’

Sara has until June 19 to seriously consider which path she wants to take. Will Inday Sara take the plunge towards redemption, or will she stick with the Marcos Jr. administration, even as its support dwindles due to the growing economic hardship faced by the people?