PH inflation rate forecast for this year hiked

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Economic managers revised the government’s inflation assumption for this year as prices of basic goods, energy and transport rates remain on the rise given the same direction for oil prices.

In a briefing on Monday, Budget and Management Secretary Amenah Pangandaman, also head of the inter-agency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), said the latest inflation assumption for this year has been hiked to a range of 5 to 7 percent from 2.5 to 4.5 percent.

“Nevertheless, the government, through the Inter-Agency Committee on Inflation and Market Outlook (IAC-IMO), is committed to pursuing an all-of-government approach to continuously implement immediate and medium-term strategies to alleviate inflation, ensure food and energy security, and return to the target range of 2-4 percent between 2024 and 2028,” she said.

The rate of price increases in the country slowed for the third consecutive month last March to 7.6 percent from 8.6 percent the previous month, and the 14-year high of 8.7 percent last January.

The average inflation in the first quarter this year stood at 8.3 percent, way above the government’s 2 to 4 percent target band until 2024.

Monetary authorities expect inflation to return to within-target levels in the last quarter of this year, with the average inflation forecast for this year at 6 percent.

The DBCC lowered its assumption for Dubai crude oil for this year to $70-$90 per barrel from $80-$100 per barrel which, Pangandaman said, was made in line with the latest easing of prices of oil in the international market.

“The latest forecasts suggest that global crude oil prices will continue to decline in 2024 before stabilizing at $60-$80 per barrel between 2025 and 2028 as the latest forecasts suggest falling global crude oil prices over the medium term,” she said.

Pangandaman said the assumption for the exchange rate for the Philippine peso and the US dollar this year was changed to P53 to P57 from P55 to P59, and this range is “expected to be maintained at the same level until 2028.”

CURRENTPH NEWS SERVICE

Inflation

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