Current trend could lead to 11,000 Covid cases per day


If the current trend in coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) daily cases continues, the Philippines can see as much as 11,000 Covid-19 cases every day by the end of March, according to a member of the OCTA Research.


OCTA Research fellow Professor Guido David earlier warned of daily Covid-19 cases reaching up to 8,000 daily by the end of March based on a reproduction rate of 1.9. The reproduction number or R-naught is the transmission rate of a disease.


But on Tuesday, David said that the reproduction rate has already reached 2.03 that could translate to higher daily cases by the end of this month or 10,000 to 11,000.


“It (reproductiion number) is now above two, and what that means is that we have to recalculate to get the trends,” David said.


“So right now, the numbers that you mentioned, 8,000 to 9,000 they have now been up to 10,000 to 11,000 by the end of this month,” he added.


The Philippines has been logging between 3,000 to 5,000 Covid-19 cases daily, with the record 5,404 logged on Monday.


David said OCTA Research also observed that most cities in Metro Manila are seeing an increase in new Covid-19 cases, but there is a “slowing down” of virus cases in Pasay City, Malabon and Navotas.


As for the other parts of the country, David said there has been in an increase in Covid-19 cases in many areas in Calabarzon like in Rizal and Cavite and parts of Bulacan.

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