The Big Dry: El Niño Returns to the Philippines

Sam Ternida

After months of neutral conditions and a brief break from the recent La Niña, it seems
that nature is not finished testing the resilience of Filipinos. After months of cold, heavy
rainfall and excessive strong winds that was caused by La Niña that ended in March
2026, its coldness was not enough to cool down the scorching high temperature of El
Niño is already making its grand entrance in the Philippines.

The uniqueness of every el nino event creates a historical record that shows an
indication of how the severe drought in the country affects us with increased risks.

The previous El Nino in March 2024 continued until May 2024 created a great impact
on 1 million Filipino families, or roughly 4 million Filipino individuals. The high heat
weather created headlines that it created in PAGASA as highest temperatures created
in decades.

After the blazing weather faded, PAGASA stated that it was unclear when the boiling
weather would return.

That is, until the Pacific waters start to warm again.

As shown in PAGASA’s latest ENSO update on May 7, 2025, weather experts show the
topical Pacific is still in ENSO-neutral status.

But most climate model indicates a 79% chance of El Niño will be emerging in
June-July-August of 2026 and will likely persist until early 2027.

Due to this sudden shift, PAGASA urged the public to start to Conserve water at home
while the supply is still stable. protect your body. Avoid doing outdoor and extreme
activities during peak heat hours of the day. And drink as much water as possible to
avoid dehydration and worse, heat stroke.

With the El Niño weather is expected to last until the early year 2027, the phenomenon
in the coming months will test the countries management in water.