The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) sees inflation for the rest of the year remaining within its target of 2% to 4%, following the 1.8% rate for March 2025.

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) Undersecretary Claire Dennis Mapa, last month’s inflation was lower than the rate in February 2025 at 2.1% and the 3.7% in March 2024. It was also the lowest rate in nearly five years.

“The latest inflation outturn is consistent with the BSP’s assessment that inflation will remain within the target range over the policy horizon. This is seen to be aided by the impact of lower rice tariffs and easing global commodity prices,” the central bank said in a statement.

It added that its Monetary Board will consider the latest inflation data along with the latest domestic and global development in its policy meeting on April 10.

This would include the announcement of US President Donald Trump for reciprocal tariffs worldwide, wherein the Philippines will be imposed with 17% tariffs for its exports to the US.

For 2025 and 2026, the BSP said outlook continues to be “broadly balanced”, with upside risk coming from the utilities sector while downside risk is the impact of lower tariffs on imported rice.

While the Monetary Board maintains its outlook on gross domestic product growth to be firm, the uncertainty over global economic policies and their implications on the domestic economy has increased significantly.

“Looking ahead, the BSP will maintain a measured approach to monetary policy easing to ensure price stability conducive to sustainable economic growth and employment. On balance, uncertainty in the outlook for inflation and growth continues to be a key factor in the setting of monetary policy,” the central bank added.

The PSA attributed the slower rise in price increases in March to the easing of food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation at 2.2% from 2.6% a month ago. Food and non-alcoholic beverages shared 50.2% to the downtrend in inflation in March.

When it comes to food inflation in particular, cereals and cereal products recorded a deflation, or decrease in prices, of 5.2% last month from a deflation of 3% in February 2025.

This commodity group includes rice, logging negative inflation for the past three months: -2.3% in January, -8.4% in February, and -7.7% in March.
Mapa said that Executive Order 62 that took effect in July 2024, which reduced the tariff on imported rice, contributed to the decline in rice prices.

Citing PSA data, Mapa said comparing the prices from July 2024 to March 2025, average price reduction for regular milled rice was at P4.90, or from P51.11 per kilo to P46.09 per kilogram (kg).

Well milled rice also declined in the same period by P4.19 per kg., or from P56.44 per kg. to P52.25 per kg., and by P2.60 per kg. for special rice, or from P64.75 per kg. to P62.15 per kg.

PNA PHOTO