The Duterte family is taking a calculated risk by resorting to political maneuvering in an attempt to sway the legal fate of former President Rodrigo Roa Duterte before the International Criminal Court (ICC). However, this gamble may prove to be futile and counterproductive.

It is evident that their mobilization efforts, particularly among Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) and their mass political base, are purely political moves. Any competent lawyer in their camp knows that such actions will have no bearing on Duterte’s case before the ICC. The tribunal, as exemplified by Judge Ilia Motoc’s firm stance, is guided solely by verified evidence—not by public sentiment or political pressure. No amount of mass mobilization or emotional appeals will justify Duterte’s immediate release.

Duterte’s case is unique. As a former head of state accused of orchestrating the deaths of hundreds, if not thousands, of his own citizens, his legal predicament cannot be compared to OFWs who have been released through diplomatic negotiations. Those who believe that mass protests or political interventions will yield the same outcome are mistaken. Duterte will only be released if the ICC determines that the evidence does not prove his guilt.

Some may argue that these mobilizations are intended to pressure the Philippine Supreme Court into issuing a favorable ruling. However, since Duterte is now under ICC jurisdiction, it remains unclear whether the ICC would recognize any decision from the Philippine judiciary. Under the principle of reciprocity, the ICC may consider new legal principles or evidence introduced by the Supreme Court, but given that the Philippines withdrew from the ICC—a move orchestrated by Duterte himself—the country may lack the legal standing to demand his release. The ICC could simply acknowledge the ruling but dismiss it on technical grounds, as the Philippines is no longer a state party to the Rome Statute.

Despite knowing this, Duterte’s legal team is allowing their political allies to mislead supporters into believing that mass mobilizations could change Duterte’s fate. In reality, these actions serve as a strategic ploy to bolster their standing in the upcoming May 11, 2025 elections. These politicians are exploiting Duterte’s situation for their own political gain, just as they have done in the past. They are leveraging his legal troubles to rally support, not out of genuine concern for Duterte or his family, but to further their careers.

Even more concerning is the apparent intention of some factions to create a revolutionary climate that could justify attempts to destabilize or even oust the current administration. However, such efforts lack any legitimate basis. If their sole justification is the current government’s supposed complicity in Duterte’s arrest, then their motives will be met with strong opposition from democracy advocates and the business sector. Any attempt at a coup would only deepen the divisions plaguing our nation, playing into the hands of foreign adversaries who seek to exploit our internal strife.

Additionally, any extrajudicial move against the government risks reigniting the insurgency. A successful coup aimed at reinstating Duterte or removing the current administration without a clear governance plan would plunge the country into further chaos. Political instability would create heightened anxiety, leading to mass unrest and potential economic collapse, something which our enemies want to happen.

I sympathize with the Duterte family, just as I sympathize with the thousands who perished under his bloody war on drugs. This unfolding situation serves as a powerful lesson for the world.

Regardless of how one perceives these events, one undeniable truth emerges from Duterte’s arrest: the ICC has proven itself as the last bastion of justice for oppressed peoples worldwide. It has sent a clear message to authoritarian leaders: no matter how powerful they may be, no matter how many lives they take, there will always be a day of reckoning.