As Typhoon Kristine relentlessly pounds the Philippines, flooding the streets of Metro Manila, Cebu, Davao, and other major cities, we are once again reminded of the grim reality: the age of megacities in Southeast Asia may be reaching its twilight. From sea-level rise to urban decay, ASEAN’s sprawling cities are facing an existential crisis. Typhoon Kristine’s wrath underscores the fragility of these dense urban centers, highlighting how ill-prepared they are for the worsening impacts of climate change. For many, it is not just a question of coping with the next storm but of survival in the coming decades.

Typhoon Kristine: A National Catastrophe

This October 2024, Typhoon Kristine has unleashed catastrophic flooding across the Philippines. In Metro Manila, waters rose to waist-deep levels in many districts, paralyzing the city. According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), over 2 million people were displaced as floodwaters inundated key metropolitan areas, disrupting daily life and damaging infrastructure. Cebu City, a hub of economic activity, saw its major roads submerged, while Davao experienced landslides and floods that crippled its transportation networks.

These disasters are not unique to the Philippines. Across ASEAN, cities are increasingly vulnerable to flooding, sea-level rise, poor urban planning, and climate change impacts. As we face these environmental calamities, the question arises: should we rethink the concept of urbanization?

The Sinking ASEAN Metropolises

According to studies by the World Economic Forum, Southeast Asia is home to many of the world’s most vulnerable cities, with 11 major cities—Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok, and Manila among them—facing the threat of being underwater by 2050. Rising sea levels, driven by melting polar ice and global warming, are exacerbated by sinking ground caused by excessive groundwater extraction and rapid urbanization.

In the Philippines, a 2019 report projected that cities like Manila, Cebu, and Iloilo would experience a sea-level rise of 1 meter by 2050, enough to displace millions. The low-lying areas of Metro Manila, such as Malabon and Navotas, are already frequently flooded, with local governments struggling to cope with both seasonal monsoons and more powerful typhoons like Kristine.

Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital, has become the poster child of sinking cities. Every year, it sinks by about 10 centimeters, and as much as 40% of the city is now below sea level. In response, the Indonesian government announced plans to move its capital to Nusantara in Borneo by 2024. But for many ASEAN countries, the option of relocating capital cities is unfeasible. Instead, they must confront the harsh reality that their metropolises may be living on borrowed time.

Urbanization Gone Wrong

The rapid urbanization of ASEAN countries is central to the climate crises they now face. In cities like Manila, Bangkok, and Kuala Lumpur, populations have swelled, leading to rampant construction, the destruction of natural ecosystems, and the development of informal settlements in flood-prone areas. Urban sprawl has become the norm, resulting in deforestation, the loss of natural drainage systems, and the reduction of green spaces.

In the Philippines, Metro Manila is home to over 13 million people, many of whom live in poorly planned, overcrowded areas. The ongoing urban sprawl has led to increased flooding, water pollution, and air quality issues. In Bulacan, rapid urbanization and groundwater extraction have caused ground subsidence, sinking the land by up to six centimeters annually. As cities expand unchecked, they become more vulnerable to environmental degradation and natural disasters.

These challenges are not limited to the Philippines. Bangkok faces similar threats, with experts predicting that parts of the city will be submerged by 2050 if urgent action is not taken. In Malaysia, the capital, Kuala Lumpur, is also at risk of facing severe urban decay due to poor planning, overpopulation, and the environmental impacts of rapid development.

The Case for De-Urbanization

The crises of ASEAN metropolises make a compelling case for a radical shift in how we think about urban life. The Makakalikasan Nature Party Philippines, a green political movement, advocates for de-urbanization and the greening of communities. This approach calls for the decentralization of cities, promoting smaller, sustainable communities that are better integrated with nature. It envisions a future where people can live in harmony with their environment rather than in conflict with it.

At its core, the Makakalikasan vision argues that urban centers have become unsustainable—ecologically, socially, and economically. The overcrowded and polluted megacities of ASEAN are breeding grounds for poverty, disease, and environmental destruction. As urban populations continue to swell, the strain on resources, infrastructure, and ecosystems only grows.

De-urbanization offers a path forward. By investing in rural areas and smaller towns, countries like the Philippines can reduce the pressure on cities and create more resilient, self-sufficient communities. These communities would be designed to minimize their ecological footprint, with renewable energy sources, sustainable farming practices, and green infrastructure at their core.

Case Studies: Cities on the Brink

1. Jakarta, Indonesia: With parts of Jakarta sinking at an alarming rate of 10 centimeters per year, the city has become a prime example of urban collapse. By 2050, nearly all of Jakarta’s northern districts could be submerged. The government’s response has been to relocate the capital to Borneo, but millions of residents will still be affected. De-urbanization efforts, if implemented, could involve relocating communities to higher ground and promoting sustainable development in less vulnerable areas.
2. Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: Rising sea levels are expected to put half of Ho Chi Minh City under water by 2050. The city’s sprawling industrial zones and informal settlements along its rivers make it highly vulnerable to flooding. Vietnam has invested in climate adaptation projects, but critics argue that more needs to be done to decentralize the population and reduce urban density.
3. Bangkok, Thailand: Bangkok, like many ASEAN cities, is facing severe land subsidence due to rapid urbanization and groundwater extraction. The city is predicted to sink by two centimeters annually, and by 2030, large portions of Bangkok could be submerged. Solutions such as restoring wetlands and mangroves, which once served as natural buffers against flooding, are now being considered as part of a broader strategy for de-urbanization.
4. Manila, Philippines: Metro Manila’s vulnerability to typhoons, floods, and rising sea levels highlights the urgent need for alternative settlement strategies. The current strategy of building more flood control infrastructure, such as the Pasig River Rehabilitation Program, has proven insufficient. A shift towards de-urbanization could involve developing smaller, eco-friendly communities outside of Metro Manila, with an emphasis on flood-resistant architecture and green infrastructure.

Greening Communities: A New Hope

The Makakalikasan Nature Party has long advocated for “Greening Communities,” a concept that merges de-urbanization with ecological sustainability. These communities would focus on:

• Renewable Energy: Solar, wind, and geothermal energy would replace reliance on coal and oil, reducing the environmental impact of urban energy consumption.
• Sustainable Agriculture: Communities would adopt organic farming practices and create food forests to ensure food security while protecting ecosystems.
• Green Infrastructure: Water-sensitive urban designs, rain gardens, and permeable pavements would mitigate flooding while enhancing the natural environment.
• Eco-friendly Housing: Homes would be built using sustainable materials, incorporating passive design elements to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions.

This model is already being tested in various regions of the Philippines. In Negros, for example, local communities have embraced organic farming and agroforestry as part of their effort to build resilience against climate change. The success of these projects demonstrates that de-urbanization is not only feasible but also beneficial for both people and the planet.

The Future of Human Settlement in ASEAN

As ASEAN cities continue to face the mounting pressures of climate change, overpopulation, and environmental degradation, the future of human settlement lies in rethinking the primacy of the metropolis. Typhoon Kristine, like countless storms before it, is a wake-up call. The model of unchecked urbanization that has defined the 20th and 21st centuries is unsustainable. The time has come to embrace de-urbanization and create smaller, greener, and more resilient communities.

The vision of de-urbanization offers a future where cities are no longer sprawling, polluted hubs of inequality and decay but are instead human-scaled, ecologically balanced, and in harmony with their surroundings. In the face of climate change, this is not just a utopian ideal; it is an urgent necessity.

Photo credit: HAG Weather