The Philippines is once again facing a formidable natural challenge as two tropical depressions, Butchoy and Carina, have formed within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). These weather disturbances, named by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), are poised to bring significant weather changes, including heavy rains and strong winds, affecting various parts of the country.

Butchoy was the first to be detected, forming from a low-pressure area (LPA) situated west of Batangas. By the evening of July 19, Butchoy had developed into a tropical depression, with its center located approximately 535 kilometers west of Tanauan City, Batangas. The depression exhibited maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour (kph) and gustiness up to 70 kph, moving westward at a speed of 25 kph. Although Butchoy is not expected to make landfall in the Philippines, its impact will be felt through the enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon, locally known as Habagat. This phenomenon is anticipated to bring moderate to heavy rains over the western portions of Luzon, particularly affecting regions such as Northern Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, Zambales, and Bataan. These areas will start experiencing the intensified monsoon rains from July 20, continuing over the next three days. Butchoy is forecasted to exit the PAR within 12 hours from July 19, with a potential trajectory leading towards landfall in China by Monday.

Close on the heels of Butchoy, another LPA east of Eastern Visayas developed into Tropical Depression Carina. Carina’s formation followed a similar timeline, with its center estimated to be 780 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes. The depression showcased maximum sustained winds of 45 kph and gustiness up to 55 kph, moving west-northwestward at 20 kph. While Carina is not predicted to bring direct heavy rainfall to the Philippines within the initial three days, its presence, combined with Butchoy, will significantly enhance the Southwest Monsoon. This will result in intensified monsoon rains starting from July 21.

The presence of these two tropical depressions has already triggered several advisories from PAGASA, warning the public of the potential hazards, including flooding and rain-induced landslides. These risks are particularly significant in areas that are already highly susceptible to such hazards as indicated in hazard maps, and those with considerable antecedent rainfall. Authorities have urged local disaster risk reduction and management offices, along with residents in affected areas, to take necessary precautions to mitigate the impacts of the impending weather conditions.

One of the major concerns raised by PAGASA is the potential for moderate to rough seas over the northern and western seaboards of Luzon. This makes sea travel risky and prompts advisories for fishermen and small sea vessels to remain cautious and avoid venturing into the open sea. The enhanced Southwest Monsoon, influenced by Butchoy and Carina, is expected to create complex weather patterns, complicating forecasting efforts and emergency preparations.

Local government units (LGUs) in the projected path of Butchoy and Carina have been placed on high alert. Evacuation plans are being activated in flood-prone and landslide-susceptible areas to ensure the safety of residents. Emergency response teams are on standby, and relief goods are being pre-positioned