Congresswoman Frances Castro calls Sara Duterte’s resignation as education secretary “long overdue,” while Senate President Chiz Escudero and several other politicians describe her action as “inevitable.” These are valid explanations. But why now?

The reason is simple—political survival. The Duterte group, with which the Vice President associates herself, is on the verge of political irrelevance. The group has suffered since last year due to missteps initiated by Sara’s father, former President Rodrigo Roa Duterte, who began attacking the Marcos administration. Many saw these actions as a desperate attempt by the Dutertes to counter potential consequences of an ICC arrest this July or August. Public perception turned negative, hitting Vice President Sara Duterte where it hurts—survey ratings. Insiders believe that the ill-conceived moves by the family patriarch significantly damaged Sara’s ratings, hurting her prospects as a strong presidential candidate for 2028.

With Sara’s reputation in tatters, the Duterte group’s main strategist, former Cabinet Secretary Peter Evasco, has reportedly been working to consolidate their forces in preparation for the mid-term elections. However, these efforts have been challenging due to waning logistical support since January or February of this year. Many prominent political figures once allied with the Dutertes have abandoned ship, most crossing over to Partido Federal led by presidential son Sandro Marcos. Partido Federal is allied with the Lakas-NUCD led by Speaker Martin Romualdez. PDP-Laban, the former administration party, has reverted to its original size.

For those unfamiliar, PDP-Laban is allied with the Chinese Communist Party. Along with former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s faction in Lakas, it has been associated with the Communist Party of China (CPC) since 2000. To avoid detection, PDP-Laban reportedly split into two factions: one led by former Energy Secretary Al Cusi, whose members are reportedly “anti-Communist,” and the other led by Senator Koko Pimentel.

The Duterte group has found itself paralyzed due to the outdated political tactics of its former Cabinet members, who have often pursued personal interests rather than the group’s collective good. These remnants of Duterte’s cabinet still believe that the former president can bolster their political careers, assuming he commands respect from government bureaucrats now heading relevant departments with substantial projects.

However, Philippine politics doesn’t work this way. Distance from the “political kusina” and being tagged as an enemy by the current administration spells doom for any political organization. Veteran politicians will shun you, and businesses will avoid you. Without substantial political and economic support, no political group can survive a clash with the President. In Philippine politics, those controlling the political purse are more powerful than those claiming to understand public pulse. The President is the recognized authority over the political purse, and no government project is granted to political outcasts.

The Duterte group’s downfall was underestimating this President, thinking he was weak and unaware of the political dynamics. Far from it, this President is a strategist. The group believed they could move against him using foreign interventionist funds. Former Senator Antonio Trillanes IV claims that this group planned to topple the Marcos administration before or after the mid-term elections, emulating the strategy employed by the Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo group in 2001. They only have until June 30 to accomplish their goal.

Recently, former President Duterte denied this alleged plan in a recorded video, appearing reconciliatory, indicating that their group might have been completely neutralized. Yet President Marcos Junior himself exposed their plans and did the right thing by going around camps, mostly all by himself, and consolidating the AFP behind him. Former president denied every plotting against the government’s downfall, justifying their “prayer rallies” as their attempts at being heard.

Such an admission actually fueled and affected their supporters, many of whom believe that by being close to the Dutertes, they will get what they want—government projects. By the day, however, many are now realizing that the Dutertes are just a shadow of its own self, with the patriarch admitting weakness and declaring himself retired and tired from politics. Bull. Crap. These people are what Filipinos call “hambogs”—they think that they are invincible and behave like bullies.

Now, the Duterte group realizes that its survival rests on the Vice President—the only prominent member still in government. For Inday Sara to regain political relevance, she must lead the Duterte group as an oppositionist. However, their failure is inevitable without the support of civil society and big business. 2028 is still far away, and the fluidity of Philippine politics can alter the fates of those who believe they are untouchable.

Becoming an oppositionist will further damage Sara’s reputation. She will be seen as a political opportunist who left the administration coalition because she was deprived of her “candy”– intelligence funds. The legitimacy of the Dutertes as opposition voices will be questioned, perceived as a desperate attempt to reclaim political relevance. Her ratings will likely plummet further as the presidential election nears.

Sara’s group can avoid this ignominious situation only if she successfully positions herself as an honest reformer and gains the support of civil society—a strategy doomed to fail, given how her father destroyed their ties with these groups during his administration. No civil society group in their right mind would align with a weakening Duterte group.

Sara may consolidate the remaining Duterte forces for their last stand through the vice-presidential platform. However, the Office of the Vice President (OVP) is not strong enough to position itself against the administration. The budget is insufficient to finance anti-government activities, and such moves could backfire, potentially leading to impeachment—a possibility not entirely remote.

Lesson in Philippine politics: never assume anything. Be humble. Don’t think of yourself as a consistently strong player. Forces are everywhere, out to get you.