In the past year, the Philippines has experienced a surge in political turbulence, marked by protests, impeachment proceedings, and a series of high-profile arrests. While domestic grievances such as corruption scandals and governance issues are real, there is growing evidence suggesting that external actors—particularly China—may be actively supporting anti-Marcos factions to weaken a U.S.-aligned and Western-oriented administration. The sequence of recent events raises questions about whether Beijing is using a combination of political influence and military signaling to exploit domestic unrest for strategic advantage.

Vice President Sara Duterte Impeachment and China’s Early Naval Maneuvers

The first notable intersection of domestic and foreign pressure occurred in September 2024, when Vice President Sara Duterte faced public scrutiny and congressional questioning over the alleged mishandling of intelligence funds. As public anger intensified, Chinese naval and coast guard forces simultaneously increased their presence in the West Philippine Sea (WPS), particularly near disputed areas such as Scarborough Shoal. This timing was more than coincidental: it suggested that Beijing was signaling its strategic leverage at a moment when a prominent pro-détente political figure was under domestic attack.

According to reports, Chinese naval and civilian vessels in the WPS made their biggest show of force in early September 2024, reaching 203 in the past seven days. This unprecedented deployment coincided with the intensifying political scrutiny of Vice President Duterte, raising questions about the timing and intent of China’s naval maneuvers (Philstar).

The Arrest of Former President Rodrigo Duterte

The next critical escalation occurred in March 2025, when former President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested and transported to The Hague to face charges of crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court (ICC). Almost simultaneously, China reportedly deployed additional naval assets to the WPS, reinforcing its presence near contested maritime territories. This pattern underscores a possible strategy: whenever pro-Duterte or pro-China actors face domestic or international pressure, Beijing responds with assertive maritime maneuvers to demonstrate power and deter potential political shifts.

The arrest of Duterte was a significant event in Philippine politics. On March 11, 2025, Philippine authorities acting on an arrest warrant issued by the ICC arrested Duterte in Manila. The ICC sought Duterte’s arrest on charges of crimes against humanity in relation to alleged extrajudicial killings occurring between 2011 and 2019. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. confirmed that an aircraft carrying Duterte to The Hague left Manila’s Ninoy Aquino International Airport at 11:03 p.m. (Human Rights Watch)

September 21 “Soft Coup” Attempt

The third key event was the so-called “soft coup” on September 21, 2025, during which forces aligned with the Duterte faction reportedly attempted to challenge President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s authority. Although the coup was quickly rebuffed by the chief of staff and the Philippine National Police, the attempt highlights the fragility of the political environment and the continuing influence of pro-China domestic actors. The timing of this internal unrest once again corresponded with increased Chinese activity in the WPS, demonstrating a recurring pattern of political destabilization and foreign signaling.

According to reports, several retired military officers aligned with Duterte visited Armed Forces Chief of Staff Romeo Brawner Jr. at Camp Aguinaldo in the evening before September 21, calling for the military’s withdrawal of support for President Marcos and initiating a “soft coup” to address corruption. This event coincided with mass demonstrations around the country, including the “Baha sa Luneta” rally in Rizal Park and the “Trillion Peso March” at the EDSA Shrine, both of which were held on the same day. While the protests were primarily focused on anti-corruption sentiments, the simultaneous coup attempt and demonstrations underscored the volatile political climate.

Diplomatic Signals: Ambassadorial Changes

Adding to the complexity, longtime Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian departed the Philippines following these political controversies, which coincided with the surfacing of reports on Beijing’s destabilization tactics. While officially framed as a routine diplomatic rotation, the timing suggests a deliberate signaling effort by China, communicating dissatisfaction with the current Philippine administration’s alignment with the United States and its firm stance on maritime sovereignty.

On September 25, 2025, or four days after the bloody riot that occurred in Mendiola at the height of the September 21 anti-corruption rally, outgoing Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian paid a farewell visit to Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. During the visit, both sides agreed that the South China Sea disputes should not define China-Philippines relations. However, the timing of the ambassador’s departure amid escalating tensions raised questions about China’s intentions and its approach to bilateral relations (Global Times).

China’s National Day Provocation

On October 1, 2025, the Chinese coast guard held a National Day flag-raising ceremony at Scarborough Shoal, directly after the Philippines reiterated the 2016 UNCLOS arbitral ruling invalidating China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea. The juxtaposition of this maritime provocation with ongoing domestic unrest in the Philippines underscores Beijing’s strategic sophistication: it leverages periods of domestic instability to assert territorial claims and send a warning to the Marcos administration.

The flag-raising ceremony was conducted aboard the Chinese coast guard vessel Dahao, which was patrolling near the disputed Scarborough Shoal. The event was broadcast on Chinese state media and social media platforms, emphasizing China’s claim over the area. The Philippines has consistently rejected China’s claims over Scarborough Shoal, citing the 2016 arbitral ruling that invalidated China’s extensive territorial claims in the South China Sea (AP News).

China’s Digital Influence Campaign

Beyond maritime maneuvers and diplomatic gestures, China has reportedly maintained a covert digital influence campaign in the Philippines. Between 2021 and 2025, the Chinese embassy allegedly funded propaganda operations through marketing firms, creating fake social media accounts and news outlets such as Ni Hao Manila to sway public opinion and undermine U.S.-Philippine relations. By shaping public narratives, Beijing increases the likelihood of domestic unrest aligning with its strategic goals.

According to reports, the Chinese embassy in Manila hired a company, InfinitUs Marketing Solutions, to run fake social media accounts posing as pro-China Filipinos. These “troll” accounts lauded China, disparaged Western COVID-19 vaccines, attacked pro-U.S. lawmakers, and amplified anti-American narratives. InfinitUs also created a propaganda outlet called “Ni Hao Manila,” which mimicked local Filipino media. Some Filipino writers and officials received awards and cash from the Chinese-linked Association of Philippines-China Understanding (APCU), some of which were tied to pro-Beijing narratives (Reuters).

Strategic Implications for the Philippines

The chronological convergence of Sara Duterte’s impeachment scrutiny (Sept 2024), Rodrigo Duterte’s ICC arrest (Mar 2025), the September 21 soft coup attempt (Sept 2025), and China’s National Day provocations (Oct 2025) suggests a deliberate pattern. Whenever pro-Duterte or U.S.-aligned forces gain political momentum or confront pro-China factions, Beijing responds with a mix of military signaling, diplomatic maneuvering, and influence operations.

This pattern has critical implications: a destabilized Philippines is less able to assert its maritime rights in the WPS, more vulnerable to external influence, and politically less aligned with Western security partners. For China, weakening the Marcos administration—while indirectly supporting domestic anti-BBM forces—serves both its territorial ambitions and broader geopolitical goals in the Asia-Pacific.

Conclusion: Vigilance and Strategic Awareness Are Essential

The evidence indicates that Beijing’s strategy is multifaceted, calculated, and opportunistic. By combining domestic influence operations, military pressure, and diplomatic signaling, China appears to be exploiting internal Philippine divisions to advance its regional interests.
For the Marcos administration and Philippine civil society, the lesson is clear: safeguarding sovereignty requires vigilance against both domestic destabilization efforts and sophisticated external interference. Strengthening democratic institutions, enhancing regional security cooperation, and maintaining transparency in governance are essential steps to counter this complex strategy. The international community, especially allies of the Philippines, must recognize that domestic political stability is inseparable from broader geopolitical security in Southeast Asia.

References
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Philippine Daily Inquirer. “AFP denies reported coup plans before Sept. 21.” Philippine Daily Inquirer, September 2025. https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/2114939/afp-denies-reported-coup-plans-before-sept-21.
Reuters. “How China waged an infowar against U.S. interests in the Philippines.” Reuters, October 6, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/how-china-waged-an-infowar-against-us-interests-philippines-2025-10-06/).
Reuters. “Philippines says important that China does not militarise disputed Scarborough Shoal.” Reuters, October 3, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/philippines-says-watching-chinas-actions-south-china-sea-nature-reserve-2025-10-03/.
Sara Duterte on her impeachment: ‘God save the Philippines’https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/2032565/vp-sara-duterte-on-her-impeachment-god-save-the-philippines?utm_source=chatgpt.com.