As the 2025 midterm elections draw closer, all eyes are on President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., whose administration is facing a crucial referendum on its political legitimacy. Recent surveys paint a troubling picture for the president, with his approval ratings taking a nosedive—just 14% of Filipinos now express support for him. Meanwhile, Vice President Sara Duterte’s trust and confidence ratings are climbing, a shift that could have significant repercussions for both national and local candidates aligned with the Marcos administration.

A weakened base of support could spell disaster for the president’s allies in the Senate and House races. The composition of the Senate post-election is particularly crucial, as many believe it will determine the fate of Vice President Duterte, who faces the looming threat of impeachment. However, assuming that a Senate dominated by administration allies will automatically lead to Duterte’s removal is far from a sure bet.

The Uncertainty of an Administration-Controlled Senate

While projections suggest that eight administration-backed candidates could secure Senate seats, history has shown that many of these so-called allies tend to chart their own course when pivotal decisions arise. The real question is: who among them will genuinely champion the administration’s agenda against the Vice President?

Former Senate President Tito Sotto, Senator Ping Lacson, and Pia Cayetano are widely expected to secure re-election. Sotto remains closely aligned with former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, while Lacson has built a reputation for making independent yet calculated political moves—though his latest statements suggest a shift in allegiance. Meanwhile, Pia’s brother, Alan Peter Cayetano, has already made his loyalties clear, positioning himself as a potential running mate for Duterte in the 2028 presidential race—further exposing where the Cayetanos truly stand when it matters most.

Another administration-backed candidate, Camille Villar, is reportedly a Duterte supporter, while Abby Binay’s stance remains ambiguous. However, given her husband’s political associations, it is entirely possible that Binay could vote against impeachment, making her allegiance a key factor to watch.

Then there are wildcard candidates like Lito Lapid and Erwin Tulfo. Both have a history of siding with prevailing political currents rather than adhering to rigid party loyalties. Tulfo, once a staunch Duterte ally, has now aligned himself with the Marcos administration—a clear indication that the Tulfos are playing a strategic, pragmatic game rather than one driven by ideological commitments.

Is an Anti-Duterte Senate Even Possible?

Even if administration candidates secure a Senate majority, impeaching Vice President Duterte is far from guaranteed. Prominent opposition figures, including Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa, and even TV personality Willie Revillame, are ranking high in senatorial surveys. These individuals, all with Duterte affiliations, could effectively block any impeachment attempts.

But there is a glimmer of hope for those who wish to see Duterte politically neutralized. If former DILG Secretary Benhur Abalos, Senator Francis Tolentino, and ex-senators Kiko Pangilinan and Bam Aquino manage to clinch victories, the balance could shift towards impeachment. However, President Marcos cannot afford to rely solely on political luck—he must take decisive action.

Marcos’ Survival Playbook: The Ramos Strategy

If Marcos wants to maintain control of the political landscape, he must take a page from former President Fidel Ramos’ playbook—publicly endorsing administration allies while secretly backing select non-administration candidates who have reputations as principled statesmen. By strategically supporting a mix of allies and independent thinkers, Marcos can create a Senate that ensures both his political survival and the ability to sideline his biggest threat—Sara Duterte.

With the 2025 midterms shaping up to be a pivotal moment in Philippine politics, one thing is clear: the results will either solidify Marcos’ grip on power or mark the beginning of his political downfall. Will he play his cards right, or is he already running out of moves?