A quick look at the Pulse Asia survey for March 2021 on the ratings of presidentiables show Davao City mayor Sara Duterte’s ratings as double of that of her nearest competitor. As what Pulse Asia said in its website:
“Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte emerged as a possible top contender for president in the 2022 national elections, according to the result of a recent Pulse Asia national survey.
The survey, conducted on 2,400 respondents from November 23 to December 2, 2020, said about a quarter or 26% of adult Filipinos would support a probable presidential bid of Mayor Duterte, daughter of President Rodrigo Duterte.
“If the May 2022 presidential election was held during the survey period, around one (1) out of every four (4) Filipino adults (26%) would vote for Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte as the country’s new chief executive,” Pulse Asia said.
The survey showed her lead is anchored on her dominance in Mindanao and Visayas, where she rated 58% and 29%, respectively.”
Take a good look at the survey though. Duterte only has 28% of what analysts describe as the voting corridor that is NCR and Balance of Luzon (BL). Both regions comprise 56% of the vote. The Commission on Election (COMELEC) places the exact voting population at this point to 55Million. Let’s just say that the voting turnout came out at 80%. Translate that in real numbers and you get 44 million voters.
From this number, calculate in real numbers what 56% of 44 Million looks like and you get 24.64 Million. From this figure, Duterte only have 28% share that in real numbers, 6.7 million. This is far smaller that Poe’s 29% and cautiously bigger than Pacquiao’s 20% which, ties up with Vice President Leni Robredo’s figure of 20%
However, take Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., and you have 36% of the voting corridor or in real numbers, 8.87Million. This is followed by Manila Mayor Isko Moreno’s 35% share of the NCR and Balance of Luzon.
What does these figures suggest? This means that, by the final stretch, Bongbong and Isko might be fighting neck-to-neck for the votes of those living in the voting corridor. However, don’t count Robredo out, not as yet.
Between Isko and Bongbong, the one only interested to run is Bongbong Marcos. If he sides with the administration, Bongbong might slide back to vice presidential post in favor of Sara Duterte. It is not entirely clear if Bongbong’s consistent base will even support a Sara Duterte. Studies show they have very clear constituencies who are relatively different from each other. Duterte’s share in the voting corridor might improve to about 30-35% levels but not expected to breach a 40% share. A Duterte-Marcos vote might not be enough to win contrary to what some political observers believe, especially if Moreno decides to back out and endorse a Robredo, perhaps.
It would be very interesting though what happens with Grace Poe’s 29% if she indeed will not run in this elections, or in this case, Pacquiao’s. This goes to the same votes for Moreno. Both Poe and Moreno had withdrawn their names from the 1Sambayan nomination but evidently, at this early, they have considered themselves part of the opposition.
Since Duterte had consistently registered a share of between 24-28% of the voting corridor from previous surveys, the possibility of Poe’s and Moreno’s votes transferring to Robredo looms. Robredo has to just get at least 40-60% of the votes from this voting corridor to win the 2022 elections, and the rest of the Visayas and Mindanao. These surveys show that the Visayas and Mindanao have been perennial spoilers for administration bets, since regions in these parts behave as anti-establishment and anti-administration. Cebu, for example, is expected to side with the opposition generally, and the same case goes to several big provinces in Mindanao. Negros region, for one, behaved like an opposition bailiwick in previous presidential and national elections.
It is therefore, a very good development if for the meantime, Poe’s, Moreno’s and Pacquiao’s are being considered as presidential bets because they shatter the myth of a Duterte landslide win. Statistically, all bets are relatively statistically tied at this point. These big ticket names in the political world can very well attract voters away from the administration and by perfect timing, eventually consolidate behind one singular opposition.
The only enigma at this point is Bongbong Marcos. BBM might break the tie so to speak between the Duterte and the opposition camps. However, should the administration field two (2) groups for 2022 elections: an anointed one by the President and another one from the administration party, then, that will break the strong hold of the Duterte’s in the Visayas and Mindanao regions and cause the defeat of BBM and the win of the opposition.
Robredo’s chances is improving steadily as the election nears. However, Robredo’s numbers may yet plunge, thanks to the amateurish antics of her handlers.